These are 2019 predictions and trends that will most likely extend this year. The points were made by speakers at the recent MarketWaves 18 conference near Dallas, put on the by trucking data company FreightWaves.
1.Interest rates might rise
Rates might well rise, said Jason Schenker of the Futurist Institute. Two factors are an increase in the national debt, which he said is likely, and further trade problems with China.
2. Hot or not?
Growth sectors for 2019 are e-commerce, industrial technology and consumer goods, Schenker said, with automobiles, construction, metals and mining performing below average. Most of his clients are bullish on 2019’s economic performance, but over 80 percent of them expect a downturn in 2020.
3. Gauging the boom cycle
The economy roared in 2017 and 2018, but it appears we’re in the mid- to late part of the good times, said Ibrahim Bayaan, chief economist of FreightWaves. Still, that doesn’t necessarily “mean a recession is right around the corner.”
4. Used vehicles
Expect prices to drop in the first quarter, as much as 40 percent, said Dean Croke of Freightwaves. Even with the favorable tax law changes in depreciation, the level new-truck orders this year has seemed too high.
5. Electric trucks for short-haul only
They’ll be viable in heavy-duty trucking, but only for short-haul in the near future, said Eric Fuller, president and CEO of U.S. Xpress. Electric-powered trucks are “not ready to go that 500 miles we really need,” but that could happen in five to 10 years.
6. Autonomous trucks
Integration of long-haul autonomous trucks will be slower, Fuller predicted. Level 5 autonomy, with no person in the truck, is 20 to 25 years out. “That last 5 percent of the technology is going to be the hardest to fix,” he said.
7. Small fleet’s perks
Jeff Tucker, CEO of Tucker Company Worldwide said that drivers will probably continue to choose smaller fleets. Of the hundreds of thousands of driver jobs created in the last six years, with “more than a two to one ratio, those drivers are entering one-to-100 truck fleets,” he said. Of those, most are joining or starting fleets of one to six trucks, Tucker said. That’s driven in part by market data from truckstop.com and other providers that make it easier to work for yourself, Tucker said.
This buzzword of the data world, referring to the use of a distributed ledger with immutable entries of all kinds of data visible to multiple parties, was mentioned often by MarketWaves presenters. However, its widespread adoption within trucking is years away, said Brad Hollister, CEO of SwanLeap, which uses artificial intelligence and machine learning for supply chain automation. Too many trucking companies are “on a 1990s platform,” so it will be difficult to get agreement on software standards that work for the many participants engaged in a shipment that’s tracked via blockchain.
9. Outdated software and focus on the wrong metrics
Not just outdated software, but an outdated focus on the wrong metrics has created a “false sense of security” for some working in logistics, said Brian Bowers of Freightwaves. “The pace at which data is being captured and analyzed now far exceeds the pace at which we’re learning and applying knowledge to our lives and organizations,” he said.
The nutrious produce challenge
Constant improvements in logistics and the growing availability of data and will change the fresh produce market, said Jaco Booyens, co-chairman of Eden Green Technology, described by forbes.com as “a next-generation vertical farming company that aims to democratize safe, nutritious produce.” Farmers’ “number one headache is trucking,” he said. It often takes seven to 10 days to get produce from farm to retail shelf, meaning it’s lost more than 60 percent of its nutritional value and was harvested so prematurely that it lacks in taste. Expect fruits and vegetables to be grown closer to population and distribution centers.